This post is also available in: Deutsch
I present the following for your spirited debate.
Experienced Father says some voter data metrics suggest a possible “red tsunami” for the midterms in a couple weeks. Read on…
You need to check out the twitter feed of —
Short form — He is tracking early voting returns in states that report total votes by party affiliation and its looking like Red Tsunami. This was one of his recent threads —
1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC). Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.
2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014. 3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN
3) Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points–not polls which are opinions of what people “might” do in the future—every single one is favors the Rs. 4) I’ll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded . . .
4) . . they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents. SIXTY THOUSAND! 5) Who do you think is NOT responding? Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs. 6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more
The thing that stood out for me in that passage was it now takes -200- calls to get one ‘valid’ poll result, with a 20% “error bar” because…(my speculation) unscreenable lying to the poll taker.
All media polls are is nothing but propaganda to manipulate voter turn out.
I don’t know if these tantalizing early returns are predictive, but historically midterm elections have rarely gone well for the sitting president’s party. The American people have a subconscious need to “balance” the power bases in Washington.
However, we’re currently in a very ahistorical time. The nation is less White than it’s been since the height of the slave trade (and that was when Whites were cultural hegemons in America), our ruling class hates us, Dems are openly calling for political violence against “deplorables”, partisanship and public rancor are approaching pre-Civil War I levels, and a shadow Deep State administrative government is attempting a silent coup against the President.
Which is to say, we’re living in a Black Swan era. The election of Trump was a black swan. These midterms may be another. Past results aren’t necessarily indicative of future performance.
One other point I’d make: in part owing to the fevered partisanship and cratering trust of American society, it’s likely that social expectation bias is playing a much bigger role in polling results than it has in the past. Americans, especially those on the right, are now a lot more circumspect about revealing their true voting preferences to pollsters (or to anyone for that matter) because they don’t want to deal with the headache of triggering shitlibs to weeping. If conservatives feel less secure publicly airing their beliefs, then they will be less likely to answer pollsters and more likely to lie about how they’ll vote, skewing poll data.
Which would mean another unforeseen silent Trump vote like we had two years ago.