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Flake Odds Point System

Flaking is one of the most frustrating things a man will experience in his quest for ass/love/something in between.  Plenty of intelligent commentary has been written about this baffling phenomenon — why it’s predominantly a female affliction, what steps can be taken to reduce the odds a girl will flake — so instead I’ll focus on what attributes and behaviors correlate most strongly with a tendency to flake.  These observations are based on my personal experiences and those of my friends.  It’s not a scientifically valid survey, but the anecdotes seem to jibe with what science has to say about female psychology.

First, it helps to understand the basics.  Why girls flake can be expressed as a very simple equation:

Options = flaking

where options means how many men she can attract.  The more desirable she is, the more likely she will be to blow off any one suitor, as another one is right around the corner.

Here’s a refined version of that equation:

Options + neuroticism + extraversion = flaking

meaning that if you’ve met a smoking hot attention whore with paranoid self-esteem issues you may as well wipe your ass with that number close.  You’d’ve been better off shooting for the fuck close on the roof deck behind the fake palm tree.

Note: a girl not returning your call is not necessarily a flake.  To qualify as a true flake, there has to have been real indications of attraction prior to getting her number.  Positive indicators include kissing, lots of touching, her playing with her necklace or rings,  sexually open body language, talking about you at least 30% as much as herself, seeking your approval, a willingness to be led by you around whatever venue you and her happen to be, and an obvious eagerness to give her number when you ask for it.

The following is an elaboration on my personal checklist for identifying which girls are likely to flake.  I subtract a point for every trait or behavior I think will increase the odds of a flake and add a point for those things that I think will reduce the odds of a flake.  Data that have little impact on flake odds are not included.

  • works in service industry:    -1
  • as a waitress:    -1
  • younger than 25:    -1
  • older than 30:    +1
  • more than 10 years younger than me:    -1
  • non-american*:    +1
  • big breasted/voluptuous:    -1
  • brief kissing:    +1
  • extended makeout:    -1
  • shy:    +1
  • first on the dance floor:    -1
  • slutty dresser:    -1
  • wears drab colors:    +1
  • easily distracted:    -1
  • out with a large group of friends:    -1
  • alpha female of the group:    -1
  • mother hen/designated driver of the group:    +1
  • lone wolf:    +1
  • highly educated:    +1
  • heavy makeup:    -1
  • blonde or redhead:    -1
  • parents still married:    +1
  • child of divorce:    -1
  • only child:    -1
  • has at least one brother:    +1
  • met her on a weeknight:    +1
  • on a rainy weeknight:    +1
  • at a dive bar:    +1
  • at 3AM in a crimson-colored nightclub on a leather couch while she was rolling on E:    -100
  • single mom:    +100

* The less Anglocized the country of origin, the more likely she’ll be courteous and answer your call.

At -10 points a flake is assured.  Throw that number away or give it to your best friend.  He’s just as likely to score with her as you are.  At +10 points, she’ll pick up on the first ring.

Some of these observations make sense; others seem counterintuitive.  A waitress, like a big breasted woman, has to deal with leering men all day, so she’s open to any rationalization to shelve the guy she gave her number to.  Plus, I have a theory that very feminized, high-estrogen women (i.e., those with curvy womanly bodies) have enhanced feminine mental traits as well, like flaking.

Non-Americans just don’t take men for granted as much.  Kissing a girl for too long will give her buyer’s remorse the next day when she wakes up feeling guilty.  Educated women live more structured lives and exhibit more self-discipline, two traits which are anti-flake.  Shy girls, surprisingly, will answer calls.  They have a negatively skewed sense of their own attractiveness to men as a result of not getting constant feedback through attention-seeking behavior.  Girls with high neuroticism/high extraversion who need constant reassurance of their desirability find more pleasure in collecting numbers rather than following up on them.  Younger girls have a longer time horizon and a wider suitor horizon so they can afford to dick around.  A girl who grew up in a broken household or with a daddy who let his loving kisses linger a little too long will be more likely to flake, but also more likely to feed her low self-worth by fucking you right away.

Single moms will drop their kid off at a baby hatch in order to free up time for a first date with you.

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