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I Called It Two Years Ago

This post is also available in: German

Two years ago, on the eve of the 2008 election of Obama, I predicted this:

2010 will be a repeat of 1994.

2010 was 1994, except the wave this time was even bigger. How could I have such stunning prescience? Simple, really. I comprehended two basic facts about the political landscape.

1. In 2008, the voters did not recognize how leftist Obama really was at heart. Hope and change, delivered by the propaganda arm of the Democrat party, aka the MSM, sugarcoated Obama’s true radical nature and misled a misty-eyed electorate justifiably fed-up with Bush. I figured Obama would govern and behave like the inborn progressive he is, which he has, and that this would incite a push-back from the electorate in two years, primarily among middle-class whites and independents.

2. The economy would remain bad, which would mean that the party in power would lose. The worse the economy, the worse the losses. This is about as close to an iron law in politics as there is. In 2012, the Democrats will be perceived as the party in power because Obama is at the helm, and the Republicans have only the House. (It may be a blessing in disguise that Republicans did not win the Senate, and thus the public’s perception of being the party in power, because they cannot be tarred in 2012 with failing to fix the economy.)

How did I know the economy would remain bad? First, progressive policies rarely improve economic outlooks. Obama’s policies were doomed to fail, or have little ameliorative effect. Second, there are two main structural forces working against an economic recovery any time soon: mass immigration of low-skilled, low human capital people of whom 2/3rds reliably, and perhaps congenitally, vote socialist, and higher oil prices caused by the arrival of Peak Oil. Oil and human capital are the grease in the cogs of the economy; restrict and degrade each respectively, and you are looking at a long term stagnation, if not a worsening, of the economy.

My prediction for the 2012 general election:

Obama will lose, but barely and despite an economy in the crapper that should have ensured a humiliating landslide loss, thanks to demographic shifts toward fewer whites and more Hispanics.

Republicans will gradually become the de facto white party. Identity politics will entrench, assured by an increasingly diverse and fragmented electorate. (Proximity + diversity = war.)

The economy will stay bad, actually will get worse. Unemployment will hit 12-15%, the dollar will continue losing value and maybe its spot as the world’s currency, inflation will kick into high gear, gold will hit record highs, amnesty* will encourage another massive inflow of immigrants from Mexico and Central America, and steadily and inexorably rising oil prices putting the screws to any nascent recovery will be the backdrop to it all.

Total speculation informed by a dash of psychological and electoral diagnosis: Chris Christie and Marco Rubio will be the Republican ticket.

*We are entering a very dangerous lame duck session of Congress. Expect Pelosi & co. to pull off an amnesty coup in the next couple of months. She’s that egotistical.


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